With Europe’s major leagues only a week or two old, we’re left with the apparent inconvenience of an international break. So here I am to update you on the situation in each qualifying group, and what impact the next week of matches could have on the race to Poland and Ukraine.
GROUP A
It’s said that in Germany fans don’t get too excited about qualification because no European country finds qualification easier. The German’s superb qualification record for major championships has continued into their Euro 2012 campaign. Seven wins from seven means Joachim Löw’s side are all but qualified. Victory against Germanic neighbours Austria tonight would secure Germany’s place in the finals.
Elsewhere in the group there’s a three-way battle for second place between underachieving Belgium, well-drilled Turkey and outsiders Austria. With their game in hand Turkey are probably favourites, despite Belgium currently sitting in 2nd place. Belgium have struggled to get the likes of Hazard, Lukaku, Fellaini etc. to bond effectively. Turkey on the other hand are tough and gritty, and at home they’re one of the toughest teams in Europe to beat.
Austria probably haven’t got the individuals to go the distance, and though Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan are improving, and can cause teams problems at home, their impact on the group has been minimal, and certainly Azerbaijan will see the current standings as a disappointment.
GROUP B
It doesn’t get tighter than group B. The Republic of Ireland, Russia and Slovakia are all currently tied on 13 points. In what always promised to be a competitive group, nobody’s set the world alight. Tonight’s Rep. Ireland vs Slovakia match in Dublin could prove decisive come the end of the campaign. Don’t expect entertaining football, just an extremely tense, cautious approach from both sides as they work hard to avoid defeat. Tuesday’s Russia vs Rep. Ireland game at the imposing Luzhniki Stadium could be equally important as the teams at the top scrap for the essential points. This promises to go right down to the wire.
Armenia deserve a mention for their dogged style of play, which has earned the former Soviet republic 8 points. Macedonia will be disappointed that they aren’t higher than 5th, and Andorra are unexpectedly bottom of group B with 0 points.
GROUP C
Italy seem set to qualify without any scares. The Italians are 5 points clear of second place Slovenia with a game in hand, and the Azzuri face Slovenia on Tuesday in a match that’s more important for the visitors than the group leaders. However the Italians, who are currently attempting to re-build after a disappointing World Cup in 2010, know that victory against their tiny neighbours would all but secure their passage through to the finals.
In the mean time Italy travel north to the remote Faroe Islands today. Belfast will tonight be the stage for a huge match between 3rd placed Northern Ireland and Serbia who are only a point behind in 4th. Both have a game in hand on Slovenia. The reverse fixture last season was played behind closed doors in Belgrade and Serbia won 2-1; expect a tough, fierce game at a loud Windsor Park tonight. The fight for second will certainly be exciting.
Estonia will be delighted with their 7 points, though it’s a big ask for them to challenge for 2nd. The Faroe Islands’ 4 points have meant they’ve climbed the FIFA rankings substantially, and at home they can cause problems.
GROUP D
After a shock defeat against Belarus in Paris, France have recovered admirably; winning 4 and drawing 1. They lead the way in Group D and look favourites for promotion. Laurent Blanc’s young side have forgotten the World Cup catastrophe and are looking to secure qualification as soon as possible. Blanc’s team seem to have a good balance and a healthy attitude.
Belarus are only a point behind though they’ve played a game more than the French. The youngsters fancy their chances of taking Belarus to its first major championship since independence in 1991, though they have Bosnia & Herzegovina hot on their heels. The Bosnians have struggled to replicate the form that took them to a World Cup play-off in 2010, however Bosnian frontman Edin Dzeko is one of Europe’s form strikers. The two countries play each other in a tantalising double-header tonight and Tuesday night. These two matches could very well decide who goes to Poland and Ukraine, and who watches the tournament on TV.
Romaina are 4th with 8 points and probably believe they still have a decent chance of qualifying after a 3-0 victory against Bosnia and Herzegovina. 6 points from their next two matches against Luxembourg and France and they’re right back in the mix. Albania have done brilliantly to accumulate 8 points already, however tough upcoming fixtures mean it’s unlikely they’ll qualify. Luxembourg have followed the script and have an unimpressive 1 point from a possible 21.
GROUP E
Group E could be settled tonight. The Netherlands have had a brilliant campaign so far, winning all six of their opening matches. Bert van Marvijk has tweaked his World Cup finalists’ style to make them more Dutch. He’s kept his team’s solid spine, but has encouraged more attacking, beautiful football. It’s worked very well for the Oranje who seem set to qualify easily with matches against San Marino and then Finland.
Second place could be decided tonight. Hungary host Sweden with the young Magyars in 3rd place, 3 points behind Sweden, who have a game in hand on the chasing pack. Victory is essential for Hungary, who are trying to qualify for their first major tournament since 1982. Sweden have been in great form so far, and will be full of confidence. This could be the match of the night in Europe.
Finland and Moldova have been average, and have never looked like competing for the top spots. We know by now what to expect from San Marino. 0 points and a goal-difference of -33 from 7 matches tells its own story.
GROUP F
The most easterly group in the competition has been very tight. All teams have been pretty evenly matched, and that’s reflected in the standings. Greece, Croatia and Israel are all separated by just one point at the top, with Israel underdogs purely on the basis that they’ve played a game more than their rivals. Israel play Greece tonight in a match that could decide the home team’s fate, especially with Croatia playing Malta in a game the group leaders can’t possibly lose. Should Israel beat Greece tonight it doesn’t get easier as they face Croatia in Zagreb on Tuesday. Israel therefore have two massive matches in a row to save their campaign. It promises to be a very exciting week in Group F.
Elsewhere Georgia have gained an admirable 9 points so far, and will see this campaign as a useful stepping stone ahead of the World Cup qualifiers that start in 2012, especially seeing as the Caucus state have climbed the rankings impressively in the last few months.
Latvia have had yet another disappointing campaign; so far only mustering a meagre 4 points, which is still much better than Malta. The islanders have 0 points.
GROUP G
Unsurprisingly England top the group. Surprisingly for some Montenegro are joint top. Kranjcar’s classy team play effective, high-energy, passing football with Mirko Vucinic the linchpin. The classy Roma man has been inspirational in qualifying, and they remain unbeaten in Group G going into a seemingly simple game against Wales tonight. England are growing in confidence slowly with many youngsters (particularly defenders) pushing to replace the old guard. England and Montenegro will finish in the top two places, and their final positions will probably be decided by their clash in Montenegro later in the campaign. England face Bulgaria tonight, before a British derby against Wales on Tuesday.
The other teams in the group will be very disappointed with their campaigns. Switzerland had a horrible start and have only won one game so far. Their focus switches to World Cup qualifying, and the future looks bright for the Swiss following their stunning performance in the UEFA under 21 Championship this summer. Bulgaria have yet again failed to develop, and the retirement of Dimitar Berbatov from international football makes life even harder for them.
Wales will be devastated with their worst start ever to a qualification campaign. 4 games, 0 wins for a team that includes Gareth Bale and Aaron Ramsey. This campaign can’t end soon enough for the Welsh.
GROUP H
Not quite as clean-cut as we thought it would be. I think that’s a fair way of explaining group H. With Portugal, Denmark, Norway, Cyprus and Iceland drawn together one presumed Portugal and Denmark would battle it out for 1st and 2nd, Cyprus and Iceland would fight to avoid the bottom spot, and Norway would be stuck in the middle. The way things currently stand Portugal, Denmark and Norway are separated by just goal-difference. All are stuck on 10 points having each won 3, drawn 1 and lost 1. This reflects the way Portugal have struggled in qualifying, much like they did in World Cup 2010 qualifying. Denmark have played well, following the same plan that got them to South Africa. But the real shock has been provided by Norway. The Scandinavians have famously never qualified for a major tournament, despite regularly producing players of reasonably high quality. Have they finally got it right? We’ll find out over the next week.
Tonight they face Iceland in a must-win game in Oslo. Then on Tuesday they cross the Skagerrak to play Denmark in what looks set to be a cracker. If Norway hold second place on Tuesday night I back them to hold onto it.
Cyprus and Iceland have failed to have much impact on the group. Iceland in particular will be ashamed of their one point. With the under 21s playing so well during the last two years it’s incredible that the national team has deteriorated so badly.
GROUP I
100% for Spain; they’ve won all five of their games so far. The good times don’t look like ending for Spain who look set to qualify with few problems. Spain will already be thinking about defending their title in Poland and Ukraine in Euro 2012.
The Czech Republic seem favourites to land second spot in what is a very poor group. They’re currently on 9 points, 5 ahead of Scotland, who’ve played one game less than the Czechs. Scotland need 6 points from their next two weeks to keep their dreams alive. However the Scots have only beaten Liechtenstein so far, and they face tricky games against the Czech Republic tomorrow and Lithuania on Tuesday.
Lithuania don’t look like threatening much following their defeat against Liechtenstein, but Liechtenstein’s three points represents a decent return for the principality.
MATCH TO WATCH : TONIGHT
Hungary vs Sweden – A win for Sweden seals second place. A win for Hungary and it’s all to play for. The football on show should be very aesthetically pleasing as well.
MATCH TO WATCH : TUESDAY
Denmark vs Norway – Many great matches scheduled for Tuesday night, but this could be very decisive. Expect Scandinavian fire.
PLAYER TO WATCH
Edin Dzeko – After a blistering start to the season at Manchester City he could be the key player in the Belarus – Bosnia double-header.
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